美国鸡蛋价格再攀新高，背后缘由几何？

Why are Egg Prices in the US Reaching New Highs Again?

尽管3月美国CPI通胀整体呈现降温态势，但鸡蛋价格却逆势而上，再度刷新历史纪录。究其原因，零售商们顾虑未来鸡蛋供应状况，故而维持高价。
Although the overall CPI inflation in the US showed a cooling trend in March, egg prices bucked the trend and reached a new historical high. The reason is that retailers are concerned about the future egg supply situation and thus maintain high prices.

美国劳工统计局周四早些时候公布的数据显示，3月鸡蛋价格环比攀升5.9%，达到每打6.227美元，同比涨幅更是高达60.4%。
Data released earlier on Thursday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that egg prices rose by 5.9% month - on - month in March, reaching ＄6.227 per dozen, with a year - on - year increase of as high as 60.4%.

值得留意的是，此处提及的是鸡蛋零售价。实际上，3月底美国散装鸡蛋批发价已降至每打3美元，相较于月初近乎腰斩，要知道2月时批发价曾飙升至每打8美元以上的历史高位。
It is worth noting that the price mentioned here is the retail price of eggs. In fact, the wholesale price of bulk eggs in the US had dropped to ‘＄3’ per dozen at the end of March, almost halved compared to the beginning of the month. It should be noted that the wholesale price had soared to a record high of over ‘＄8’ per dozen in February.

这一情况对特朗普而言，并非喜讯。此前，他一直致力于降低鸡蛋价格，将鸡蛋视作消费者为高昂食品杂货账单所累的标志，还多次对近期鸡蛋批发价的下跌表达赞赏。
This situation is not good news for Trump. Previously, he had been committed to reducing egg prices, regarding eggs as a symbol of consumers being burdened by high grocery bills, and had repeatedly expressed his appreciation for the recent decline in egg wholesale prices.

行业专家原本预计，随着需求下滑以及禽流感疫情的缓解，加之批发价已回落至每打3美元，食品杂货店货架上的鸡蛋价格理应迅速下降。然而，现实却是消费者并未看到价格有任何下降的趋势。
Industry experts had expected that with the decline in demand, the alleviation of the avian influenza epidemic, and the wholesale price dropping back to ＄3 per dozen, the price of eggs on grocery store shelves should have dropped rapidly. However, in reality, consumers have not seen any sign of price decline.

阿肯色大学农业经济学家Jada Thompson指出，鸡蛋批发价直至3月中旬才开始下行，所以即便月底价格下跌，杂货店或许也不会即刻让消费者享受到降价优惠。
Jada Thompson, an agricultural economist at the University of Arkansas, pointed out that the wholesale price of eggs did not start to decline until mid - March. So even if the price dropped at the end of the month, grocery stores may not immediately pass on the price reduction to consumers.

CoBank的经济学家Brian Earnest表示，零售商在调整商品价格时往往较为谨慎。当商品价格快速上涨，因担忧供应短缺，他们可能会跟着提价。但倘若供应不稳定，他们便不愿轻易降价，生怕降价后供应跟不上，造成亏损。此外，频繁更换货架价格标签颇为繁琐，会增加工作量。
Brian Earnest, an economist at CoBank, said that retailers are often cautious when adjusting commodity prices. When commodity prices rise rapidly, due to concerns about supply shortages, they may follow suit and raise prices. However, if the supply is unstable, they are reluctant to lower prices easily for fear that the supply may not keep up after the price reduction, resulting in losses. In addition, frequently changing price tags on shelves is quite cumbersome and will increase the workload.

Earnest还补充道，随着供应逐步恢复，未来数月消费者或许会看到鸡蛋价格在每打2 - 6美元区间波动。不过，零售价格着实难以预测，尤其是在供应不稳定的情形下。
Earnest also added that as the supply gradually recovers, consumers may see egg prices fluctuate in the range of ＄2 - ＄6 per dozen in the coming months. However, retail prices are really difficult to predict, especially when the supply is unstable.

此外，禽流感进一步爆发的风险依旧存在，4月20日的复活节也可能对鸡蛋价格起到支撑作用。复活节期间，消费者通常会大量采购鸡蛋用于染色、寻蛋游戏以及食用，需求会大幅增长。
In addition, the risk of a further outbreak of avian influenza still exists, and Easter on April 20 may also support egg prices. During Easter, consumers usually purchase a large number of eggs for dyeing, egg - hunting games, and consumption, and the demand will increase significantly.

虽说今年禽流感已致使3000万只蛋鸡死亡，但近期疫情已得到控制。今年3月仅有210万只家禽感染，蛋鸡基本未受太大影响。
Although avian influenza has killed 30 million laying hens this year, the recent epidemic has been controlled. Only 2.1 million poultry were infected in March this year, and laying hens were basically not affected too much.

与此同时，农场在对鸡舍消毒并饲养新鸡群后，一直在努力恢复鸡蛋生产。然而，母鸡需生长至约六个月大才开始下蛋，且这些农场的生产恢复速度并未如预期般迅速。依据美国农业部最新数据，截至3月1日，美国全国产蛋母鸡数量约为2.85亿只，低于前一月的2.93亿只。
At the same time, after disinfecting chicken coops and raising new flocks, farms have been trying to resume egg production. However, hens do not start laying eggs until they are about six months old, and the production recovery of these farms has not been as rapid as expected. According to the latest data from the US Department of Agriculture, as of March 1, the number of laying hens in the US was approximately 285 million, lower than the 293 million in the previous month.

当前，美国各地鸡蛋价格差异显著：
At present, there are significant differences in egg prices across the US:

• 周四，旧金山市中心西夫韦超市的散养鸡蛋每打售价9.99美元；
• On Thursday, free - range eggs were sold at ＄9.99 per dozen at the Safeway supermarket in downtown San Francisco;
• 丹佛西夫韦超市，同样的散养鸡蛋每打售价6.69美元；
• At the Safeway supermarket in Denver, the same free - range eggs were sold at ＄6.69 per dozen;
• 华盛顿特区西夫韦超市，一打笼养鸡蛋价格为5.29美元；
• At the Safeway supermarket in Washington, D.C., a dozen caged eggs cost ＄5.29;
• 在内布拉斯加州奥马哈，沃尔玛出售的鸡蛋每打价格为4.97美元。
• At Walmart in Omaha, Nebraska, eggs were sold at ＄4.97 per dozen.