关税巨浪下，中国跨境卖家的求生之路

The Survival Routes of Chinese Cross - border Sellers under the Tariff Tsunami

在世界贸易的长河中，这注定是被铭记的一周。
In the long river of world trade, this is destined to be a week to be remembered.

美国东部时间 4 月 8 日，美方大幅提升对中国输美产品加征的“对等关税”。原本宣称的 34%税率，进一步飙升至 50% - 84% ，再叠加此前 20% 的关税，美国对中国产品的关税竟高达 104% 。仅仅两天后，即 4 月 10 日，这一数字更是跃升至 125% 。
On April 8th, Eastern Time in the United States, the US side significantly increased the “reciprocal tariffs” on Chinese products exported to the US. The originally announced 34% tax rate soared to 50% - 84%. Coupled with the previous 20% tariff, the tariff on Chinese products in the US reached a staggering 104%. Just two days later, on April 10th, this figure jumped to 125%.

不仅如此，美国当地时间 2025 年 4 月 8 日还宣布，自 2025 年 5 月 2 日起，从中国大陆和香港地区发往美国、价值低于 800 美元的包裹，将不再享受免税待遇。届时，需缴纳包裹价值 90% 的关税，或每件 75 美元（2025 年 6 月 1 日后每件增至 150 美元）。曾助力 Shein 和 Temu 迅猛发展的 T86 清关政策，恐将成为历史。
Moreover, on April 8th, 2025, local time in the US, it was announced that starting from May 2nd, 2025, parcels sent to the US from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong with a value of less than ‘＄800’ will no longer enjoy duty - free treatment. At that time, a tariff of 90% of the parcel value needs to be paid, or ‘＄75’ per piece (increased to ‘＄150’ per piece after June 1st, 2025). The T86 customs clearance policy, which once helped Shein and Temu develop rapidly, may become history.

一时间，中国跨境电商行业陷入了前所未有的动荡漩涡。
All of a sudden, the Chinese cross - border e - commerce industry was thrown into an unprecedented turmoil.

当关税涨幅突破 100% ，卖家们对数字逐渐麻木。观望、不安与焦虑交织，成为他们当下的主要情绪。世界贸易局势变幻莫测，无人能预知明日新闻会带来何种冲击。
When the tariff increase exceeded 100%, sellers gradually became numb to the numbers. A mixture of waiting - and - seeing, unease and anxiety became their main emotions at present. The world trade situation is unpredictable, and no one can predict what kind of impact the news of the next day will bring.

然而，作为商人，他们内心仍怀揣着乐观。
However, as businessmen, they still maintain optimism in their hearts.

这些跨境卖家对中国强大的制造能力深信不疑。在这个全球供应链最为完备的国度，无论是颇具规模的品牌型卖家，还是众多中小卖家，都坚信：世界离不开中国制造。如今，他们纠结的是是否涨价、何时涨价，以及如何提升供应链的优化能力。
These cross - border sellers have unwavering confidence in China’s strong manufacturing capabilities. In this country with the most complete global supply chain, whether they are large - scale brand - type sellers or numerous small and medium - sized sellers, they all firmly believe that the world cannot do without Made in China. Now, they are struggling with whether to increase prices, when to do so, and how to improve the optimization ability of the supply chain.

尽管国家间的博弈不断，但商业的流动难以阻挡。“没人舍得放弃美国市场”，毕竟那是全球最大的消费电子市场，即便要付出高昂代价，卖家们也不愿轻易割舍。在宏大的国际关系背景下，商人追逐利益的本能一次次超越立场的差异。
Although there are continuous games between countries, the flow of business is difficult to stop. “No one is willing to give up the US market”, after all, it is the largest consumer electronics market in the world. Even if they have to pay a high price, sellers are reluctant to give it up easily. Against the backdrop of grand international relations, the instinct of businessmen to pursue profits transcends differences in positions time and time again.

为此，我们采访了三位跨境卖家。他们规模不同、运营模式各异，身份背景也大相径庭。相同的是，他们都在外贸与跨境行业历经风雨，见证了行业的起起伏伏。他们既有共识，也存在分歧，而这些源于各自不同的角色定位，也为更多人提供了多元的视角与可能。
To this end, we interviewed three cross - border sellers. They are different in scale, operation models and identity backgrounds. What they have in common is that they have all experienced the ups and downs in the foreign trade and cross - border industry. They have both consensus and differences, which stem from their different role positions and also provide more people with diverse perspectives and possibilities.

在这波涛汹涌的浪潮中，站稳脚跟需要非凡的勇气。这几位卖家身上，彰显着无数中小企业家的坚韧与灵活，强烈的求生欲望将助力他们一次次突破困局。
Standing firm in this turbulent wave requires extraordinary courage. These sellers demonstrate the tenacity and flexibility of countless small and medium - sized entrepreneurs. Their strong desire for survival will help them break through difficult situations again and again.

3C 产品品牌出海卖家 Jeff：关税影响下的深思与抉择

Jeff, a Brand - going - global Seller of 3C Products: In - depth Thoughts and Choices under the Influence of Tariffs

谈及关税，需从多个维度剖析。从进口层面看，得仔细排查从美国进口的原材料，像电子器件、塑料粒子等。有些原材料虽看似来自美国，但可能并非美国原产，即便原产美国，生产地也未必在美国。所以，要从供应链视角审视是否存在涉美原材料。若有，要么选择涨价，要么寻求替代国方案。
When it comes to tariffs, it needs to be analyzed from multiple dimensions. From the import perspective, we have to carefully check the raw materials imported from the US, such as electronic components and plastic particles. Some raw materials may seem to come from the US, but they may not be originally produced in the US. Even if they are originally from the US, the production place may not be in the US. Therefore, we need to examine whether there are US - related raw materials from the perspective of the supply chain. If there are, we can either choose to increase prices or seek alternative country solutions.

在出口方面，当下一两个月内，关税的影响或许还未全面显现，市场相对平稳。毕竟国内运往美国的库存，一般至少能维持个把月。然而，这批库存消耗殆尽后，情况不容乐观。一方面，港口可能出现拥堵，因为海关面对新政策或许一时不知如何应对；另一方面，成本必然上升，涨价几乎成为必然趋势。而一旦涨价，美国消费者的需求可能下滑，尤其是对非刚性需求的产品。
In terms of exports, in the next one or two months, the impact of tariffs may not be fully manifested, and the market is relatively stable. After all, the inventory shipped from China to the US can generally last at least a month. However, after this batch of inventory is exhausted, the situation is not optimistic. On the one hand, there may be congestion at the port because the customs may not know how to respond to the new policy for a while. On the other hand, the cost will inevitably rise, and price increases almost become an inevitable trend. Once the price is increased, the demand of US consumers may decline, especially for products with non - rigid demand.

目前，我们内部正在紧锣密鼓地排查供应链，但尚未得出明确解决方案。对我们而言，首要排查与苹果相关的零部件，以及部分由欧洲公司在美国生产的芯片产品。
At present, we are intensively checking the supply chain within the company, but no clear solution has been obtained yet. For us, the first thing to check is the parts related to Apple, as well as some chip products produced by European companies in the US.

我们产品的国产化率颇高，除了苹果 MFI 认证部分，其他能避开美国的早已避开。不过，仍存在一些不确定因素。比如，美国公司在中国台湾生产，而后直接从台湾运往大陆的产品，是否会受影响尚不明确，目前也无人能给出确切答案。
The domestic production rate of our products is quite high. Except for the Apple MFI - certified part, we have already avoided other parts related to the US. However, there are still some uncertainties. For example, it is not clear whether products produced by US companies in Taiwan, China, and then directly shipped from Taiwan to the mainland will be affected, and no one can give a definite answer at present.

业内人士普遍焦虑，昨晚半夜一点，各个群里还在热烈讨论关税问题。当下大家只是焦虑，再过一到两个月，市场形势恐怕会更加严峻。
Industry insiders are generally anxious. At 1 o’clock last night, the groups were still having a heated discussion about the tariff issue. At present, everyone is just anxious. In another one to two months, the market situation may become more severe.

我认为，此次关税调整，对几类公司冲击较大。其一，是那些缺乏核心竞争力，靠低价走小包卖货的公司；其二，是供应链容易被替代的公司，例如在东南亚、拉美拥有科技供应链的企业；其三，是现金流紧张的公司。如今跨境电商不确定性剧增，何时能签约、回款都不确定，而且回款后人民币汇率波动，稍有不慎，毛利率就没了，生意也就难以为继；其四，是对美国市场依赖度高的公司，若美国市场营收占公司总营收的 60% - 80% ，现在就相当尴尬。
I think this tariff adjustment will have a greater impact on several types of companies. First, those companies that lack core competitiveness and rely on selling goods at low prices in small packages. Second, companies with easily replaceable supply chains, such as those with technology supply chains in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Third, companies with tight cash flow. Nowadays, the uncertainty of cross - border e - commerce has increased sharply. It is uncertain when to sign contracts and receive payments. Moreover, after receiving payments, the exchange rate of the RMB fluctuates. If not careful, the gross profit margin will be gone, and the business will be unsustainable. Fourth, companies with a high degree of dependence on the US market. If the revenue from the US market accounts for 60% - 80% of the company’s total revenue, it is quite embarrassing now.

鉴于此，我们已不再将美国市场作为重点。此前美国市场占比超 50% ，如今已控制在 30% 以内。这两年的调整，一方面是为了寻求多元化增长，另一方面也是出于对贸易战风险的考量。所幸提前布局，不然如今处境堪忧。
In view of this, we no longer focus on the US market. Previously, the US market accounted for more than 50%, but now it has been controlled within 30%. The adjustment in the past two years is, on the one hand, to seek diversified growth, and on the other hand, to consider the risks of the trade war. Fortunately, we made early arrangements, otherwise the situation would be worrying now.

坦率讲，当下加快补货意义不大，即便关税立马生效，补货也无济于事。
Frankly speaking, it is not meaningful to speed up replenishment at present. Even if the tariff takes effect immediately, replenishment will be of no avail.

若后续关税上涨，我肯定会涨价。原本关税在 20% - 50% 时，还有所顾虑，如今已超 100% ，关税再涨与否，对竞争力影响已不大。3C 行业相对好些，全球可替代的产业链并不多。但像服装、鞋帽等行业，存在可替代产业，涨价后恐难销售。
If the tariff rises in the future, I will definitely increase the price. When the tariff was originally between 20% - 50%, I was still hesitant. Now that it has exceeded 100%, whether the tariff rises further or not has little impact on competitiveness. The 3C industry is relatively better, as there are not many alternative industrial chains globally. However, for industries such as clothing, shoes and hats, there are alternative industries, and it may be difficult to sell products after a price increase.

说实话，我们也在观望涨价时机。若同行不搞内卷，一起涨价，我自然乐意。中国厂家理应集体涨价，部分中国供应商被美国零售商压价，承担关税成本，这极不合理。中国跨境行业诸多产品在全球无可替代，如大疆无人机，凭借品牌实力就能涨价。
To be honest, we are also waiting and seeing for the right time to increase prices. If peers do not engage in cut - throat competition and increase prices together, I will naturally be happy. Chinese manufacturers should increase prices collectively. It is extremely unreasonable that some Chinese suppliers are pressured by US retailers to bear the tariff cost. Many products in China’s cross - border industry are irreplaceable globally. For example, DJI drones can increase prices by virtue of their brand strength.

众多轻工业小商品、电子产品，很难有地方能替代中国生产。像音箱、耳机这类音频产品，即便在越南生产，老板大概率也是中国人，材料也大多从中国进口。中国企业有涨价的底气。
It is difficult to find a place to replace China in the production of many light industrial small commodities and electronic products. For audio products such as speakers and headphones, even if they are produced in Vietnam, the boss is most likely Chinese, and most of the materials are also imported from China. Chinese enterprises have the confidence to increase prices.

许多出口公司毛利率可能连 20% 都不到，面对 100% 的关税，合规经营着实艰难。
The gross profit margin of many export companies may be less than 20%. Facing a 100% tariff, it is really difficult to operate in compliance.

无论关税最终走向如何，涨价基本是跨境电商卖家的唯一出路。
Regardless of the final direction of tariffs, price increases are basically the only way out for cross - border e - commerce sellers.

未来美国市场需分情况看待。特朗普在疫情期间曾发放现金刺激消费，若此次关税谈判他再度发钱，或许对生意影响不大，需求甚至可能增加。但倘若贸易摩擦加剧，物价上涨，老百姓没钱，非刚需产品必然受冲击。
The future of the US market needs to be viewed in different situations. During the epidemic, Trump issued cash to stimulate consumption. If he distributes money again during this tariff negotiation, it may not have a big impact on business, and the demand may even increase. However, if trade frictions intensify, prices rise, and people have no money, non - rigid demand products will inevitably be hit.

若出现抢购潮，转化率骤升，单量增多，就得准备涨价，否则货被抢光就麻烦了。要是需求降低，因关税成本上升又降不了价，涨价仍是唯一选择。
If there is a rush to buy, the conversion rate will soar, and the number of orders will increase. We have to be ready to increase prices, otherwise it will be troublesome if the goods are sold out. If the demand decreases and we can’t lower the price due to the increase in tariff costs, price increase is still the only option.

目前美国市场销量和通关情况尚无明显变化，只能再观察观察。当下状态犹如地震波来袭，一片混乱。物流商四处打听货物进出情况、海关是否排队。若物流正式通知涨价，公司内部必然紧张。汇率问题也不容忽视，美金如何处置，人民币升值还是贬值，都得深入研究预判。
At present, there are no obvious changes in the sales volume and customs clearance situation in the US market. We can only observe for a while. The current situation is like an earthquake wave hitting, in a mess. Logistics companies are inquiring everywhere about the import and export of goods and whether there is a queue at the customs. If the logistics company officially notifies a price increase, the company will surely be nervous. The exchange rate issue cannot be ignored either. How to deal with US dollars, whether the RMB appreciates or depreciates, all need in - depth research and prediction.

现在最大的问题是，中国人有时喜欢内部竞争。其实，涨价并无不妥，爱买不买。
The biggest problem now is that sometimes Chinese people like to compete internally. In fact, there is nothing wrong with increasing prices. They can either buy or not.

智能生态垂直类目型中大卖家，鼎瑞智能生态李兴瑞：困境中的应对之策

Li Xingrui, a Medium - large - sized Seller of Smart Ecosystem Vertical Categories, Dingrui Smart Ecosystem: Coping Strategies in a Dilemma

我经营的产品，如智能电动出行、智能家居、智能消费电子、智能宠物类、智能康美类等，均在加征关税范围内，部分产品所受影响堪称伤筋动骨。就拿两类产品来说吧。
The products I operate, such as smart electric travel, smart home, smart consumer electronics, smart pet products, and smart health and beauty products, are all within the scope of additional tariffs. Some products have been severely affected. Take two types of products for example.

首先是智能电动出行类。美国对 Ebike 骑行类产品长期加征关税。自 2014 年涉足跨境电商，因布局较早，我们打造了平衡车和 Ebike 品牌“SWAGTRON”，采用合规传统出口模式，在香港和美国设有主体公司，进行本土化运营，相比其他卖家略有优势。
First is the smart electric travel category. The US has long imposed additional tariffs on Ebike cycling products. Since entering the cross - border e - commerce industry in 2014, due to our early layout, we have created the balance bike and Ebike brand “SWAGTRON”, adopted a compliant traditional export model, and set up main companies in Hong Kong and the US for local operation, which gives us a slight advantage compared with other sellers.

然而，如今关税形势愈发严峻，无论对线下还是线上的 Ebike 卖家，打击都极为沉重。而且骑行类产品门槛颇高，对电池安全等认证要求极高。关税上调后，物流成本也将大幅增加，在竞争本就激烈的市场中，愈发艰难